|
There is a connection between gambling and odds. The ancient Greek mathematicians,
so wise, still relied on Hermes the God of gambling, for their change of fortune.
They were convinced that all numbers had an equal chance. In 1654 Blaise Pascal
made some very significant calculations that convinced Craps players, to know
that a 7 is the most likely score. Today gambling operators use computers and
sophisticated software to calculate their odds to secure huge profits. At the
end of the day however, all these experts are no wiser than the ancient Greek
mathematicians.
Odds offered on Golf betting are a very good example of how odds can be wrong.
British bookmakers were in trouble with the odds they were giving for a “hole
in one”. Two bookmakers did some homework. They found that they could get odds
from 20 to 1 to 100 to 1 for a hole in one. They then studied European Golf statistics
and found that as the standard of play improved, the odds were in fact closer
to 2 to 1. Realising the value of such knowledge they now traveled the country
placing bets and made themselves a fortune. Of course the bookmakers soon caught
on and subsequently drastically reduced their odds.
A trio of American gamblers in 1956 shook the Casinos. Roger Baldwyn developed
the “optimum julian Braun adopted this and developed it further. By
1962 Edward Thorpe had invented the first card counting techniques. They showed
that a basic strategy and card counting techniques can give the player a very
good edge. The Casino operators soon realized that the advantage they thought
they had on Blackjack was in serious danger and they reacted by trying to make
it more difficult for these techniques to be used. They introduced more packs
of cards. Thorpe proved that this was certainly not effective against the card
counter. Such card counters if suspected are barred from playing. What they
should have done was to adjust the odds!
It is interesting to consider the “special offers” they made to attract players
to the blackjack table. In the early days it was not the most popular game. The
Casinos offered 10 /1 for a blackjack made with either the jack of clubs or jack
of spades. Today the offer is 2 to 1.
Horse racing is another example of “odds and the gambler”. Tricast bets, a
bet on placing 1st, 2nd and 3rd, was not too popular. So bookmakers, in an effort
to attract the gamblers, offered a 33% bonus on this bet. Shrewd gamblers soon
recognized the flaw. British racecourses are all different. On some courses
there can be an advantage to a low draw while on others to a high draw. With
this knowledge, the punters made full cover bets with whatever draw was favoured.
They could do this because the bonus gave them the edge to make it worthwhile.
The bookmakers then reduced the maximum bet but the punters simply spread their
bets around different shops until the bookmakers eventually withdrew this special
offer.
There is the story about beating the odds at Roulette.
Joseph Hobson Jaggers worked in a textile mill. He worked with the wooden
spindles used to wind the wool. He noticed how the spindles got worn. He knew
that there are spindles on roulette wheels and that they too would become worn
and so unbalance the wheel. With this knowledge in mind he took a trip to the
Monte Carlo Casino. This was in 1873. He, together with six assistants carefully
recorded the numbers that came up on the table, for six days.
His results showed that a set of nine numbers on one of the wheels kept on
winning. For four days he bet on this wheel and won $300,000. On the next day
he started to lose badly. On close inspection he noticed that a scratch that
he had seen on the wheel was missing. The operators had changed the wheel. He
then checked the other tables until he found his “scratched” wheel and he then
won another $450,000. The casino operators then changed the wheel design. They
fitted a removable fret to separate the numbers which they could change position
at the end of the day. Jaggers quit but not before he had won a clean $325.000.
This is unlikely to happen today with the modern wheels that are regularly serviced.
So you see as Pascal proved, do your maths, but you are probably just as well
off if you just pray to the God of luck, Hermes as the Ancient Greeks did. |
